I don’t think the Mets will lose 100 games this season; in fact, I think the offseason focus on the Mets has been the loss of Jose Reyes and Mets fans still haven’t been able to get over that, in this has led to the Mets possibly being underrated (if only slightly). Realistically, I expect the Mets to float around a little below .500 with all the talent that the lineup has and the new bullpen. Sandy Alderson recently said the team’s roster is “pretty much there” and despite losing Reyes, there are things to look forward to this season.

Frank Francisco, along with Ramon Ramirez and Jon Rauch, should provide much needed consistency in the late innings.

To start, the revamped bullpen should be great. Alderson said he would make a greater effort to build the bullpen this offseason and he did that: obtaining Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Ramon Ramirez for the late innings. It will be a welcome change to sit at home and not expect to lose leads in the late innings, because that is how I felt about the overall ability of last year’s bullpen.

Ruben Tejada will be interesting to watch as he slides into the starting SS job that Reyes left behind. He’s always had a smooth hand in the field, but last season he improved his bat significantly, raising his OBP from 2010 55 points to .360 and his OPS 108 points to .696. That OPS may not jump out at you, but if he keeps trending in this direction it may get to the mid .700s, which I would be more than happy

Jose Reyes passed on his position to Tejada, but can he improve enough to significantly impact the lineup?

with given the lack of shortstop talent in the National League.

Lucas Duda’s ability to re-adapt once pitchers adapt to him will be key in his continued progression. I think he’ll be just fine and I’m looking forward to seeing if I’m right. As long as he isn’t too far below an average right fielder defensively, his .852 OPS should fit nicely into the Mets lineup as he continues to improve over the season.

And this is just a taste; there are plenty of story lines with this team that will keep this season somewhat interesting. David Wright and the smaller Citi Field, the returns of Ike Davis and Johan Santana, and the possibility of Matt Harvey and some of the other top prospects in the system coming up during the season.

Of course, winning is above all else and if this team loses 100 games then nothing will be enjoyable…

(Courtesy of the Mets on twitter)

Bill Shaiken of the LA Times reported last night that billionaire investor Steve Cohen could be one of the ten buyers Newsday reported that are buying $20 million shares in the Mets.

Cohen is currently in the running to buy the Dodgers. If Cohen were to buy a Mets’ stake and then subsequently purchase the Dodgers, he would have to sell his stake in the Mets.

Most importantly, though, if he doesn’t get to purchase the Dodgers and end up maintaining his stake int he Mets, he could purchase the Mets if a sale is eventually posted. As Shaiken says:

However, by helping the Mets and principal owner Fred Wilpon now, Cohen could be in a favorable position to buy the Mets outright if the team were put up for sale and the Dodgers were sold to another party.

This is probably a very big deal for Mets fans who have been calling for Wilpon to sell the team since last year. A new owner would certainly be a welcome change for this franchise who has been suffering from on-field mediocrity and off-field disaster for the past few seasons.

However, the team still has a lot of money invested in players who are either injured or severely and consistently underperforming. Fans won’t be coming to the stadium if the team can’t put a winning team on the field. Revenues will continue to go down and costs will continue to be cut in order to keep up. If the Mets were to be magically sold tomorrow, the next couple of seasons are set in stone as cost cutting/rebuilding seasons. This team is not good and needs to get good before the money starts coming in. The rebuilding will continue.

But if a new owner provides a glimmer of hope and certainty beyond the near future, then let’s do it. As a great writer once wrote,

“The miserable have no other medicine
But only hope.”

I know everyone is excited about the coming return of baseball. I especially love the early season story lines that come out of Spring Training. It just so happens that one of those story lines, Daniel Murphy‘s ability to play second base, was in the news recently. In an article for the New York Post this morning, Murphy talked about him working with Tim Teufel at second base:

He took quite a bit of time to help me out last spring and I think that’s going to pay off, because now he knows what I do well and what I don’t do well…I talked to Tim at fantasy camp in Florida a couple of weeks ago about a game-plan for what I have to do to get more comfortable there, so we’re already getting things going.

Last week at the B.A.T. dinner, Teufel said:

He’s played there before and he’s learned from that. He’s had knee problems and he needs to do better getting out of the way of contact – and that’s pretty much my job to help him in that area. … It’s all about feel out there. It’s very much a timing position. When you play in the middle of the field you have to know that contact is coming, it’s just a matter of when. We have to instill some timing with Murphy. This spring we will do some clockwork, put him on a clock to see the timing of things and feel the pressure. And also, how to get away from the pressure.

I’m glad Murphy is working with Teufel. He’s a hard working and is super competitive at the plate, and its good to see him bring some of that passion to the other side of the game. Murphy

(Don't) Break a leg Murphy!

knows this is the National League and that he needs a position to be able to play everyday.

He is probably better suited for a corner infield spot since that is what he played int he minors, but with Wright and Davis around there is no way he can play there on a regular basis. As

long as he gets good enough to not get hurt turning a double play. At that point I hope his bat can make up for any negative contributions made by his below average glove.

Last season in 109 games, Murphy hit .320 with 28 doubles, 42 strikeouts, and a .809 OPS.

Rounding second on the list of NL 1B is Ike Davis

With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder gone, Ike Davis’s stock relative to other first baseman in the NL has risen dramatically. According to Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk, Ike Davis is the 2nd best NL first baseman in terms of projected 2012 OPS. Here’s the top five:

Joey Votto .990

Ike Davis .864

Lance Berkman .860

Ryan Howard .850

Freddie Freeman .823

Bill James projects Davis to hit .288 with 25 home runs and 80 RBI in 141 games in 2012. Joe D of Metsmerized Online generously predicts Davis to hit .295 with 35 homers and 110 RBI.

I think those are two extremes. After the way Davis bursted into the spotlight early last season, I am sure he can finish a healthy 2012 campaign with more than 25 homers and 80 RBI; Bill James’ approximation is a little too conservative. On the flip side, Davis did only play in 36 games last year, and that is not a large enough sample size to put him up there with Joey Votto as an elite hitter; who is even hitting in front of Ike davis to get driven in for 110 RBI? If it means anything, I predict Davis to hit .290 with 30 HR and 90 RBI and be in the running for Breakout Player of the Year.

Another thing that Joe adds on MMO is that Ike Davis will be the future face of the New York Mets. I agree, with one condition: He needs to stay on the Mets in

Hopefully Ike doesn't end up leaving like Jose Reyes did.

order for him to be the face of the franchise. Ike Davis is still under team control through 2016 – five more seasons. The Wilpons have 5 years to get their acts together and reestablish financial flexibility in the organization or else sign him early long term. Otherwise, if Ike Davis’s stock rises high enough and the Mets think he will get too expensive, be it through arbitration or a new contract, Sandy Alderson may just trade him away.

But if Ike Davis does stay on the Mets, he will certainly be the face of the franchise should he ascend into the elite echelon of MLB first basemen.

AL pitchers better watch out! (Mark J. Terrill, AP)

Yesterday Prince Fielder and the Tigers agreed to a 9 year $214 million contract, taking him from the land of Cheese and Beer to Comerica Park to play first base in Detroit.

In the last two offseason, three of the NL’s best sluggers have departed for the AL: Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder.

The American League almost has a monopoly on slugging first basemen. 10 of the top 15 2011 first basemen, in terms of OPS, now play on teams in the American

'Welcome to the AL, Albert!'

League. 5 of the 7 first basemen who have a slugging percentage above .500 in 2011 play in the AL.

These are three of the greatest hitters of their generation and a look at their numbers against the National League is not necessary. The teams that these sluggers left behind are worse, at least in the short term. Who is going to replace Fielder’s numbers in Milwaukee? Can Carlos Beltran have another great year? Even if he does, he is no Pujols.

Needless to say the National League has become a lot less dangerous for pitchers in general. That, we can say for sure.

But how will the departure of Prince Fielder affect Mets pitching in particular?

Well, against current Mets pitchers R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee, Johan Santana, Jon Niese, and Mike Pelfrey, Prince Fielder has had 40 plate appearances with 2 home runs and a .447 OBP. He did particularly well against Pelfrey, getting on base 7 times out of 14 plate appearances with a home rune, a double, and 5 RBI.

So does this mean Pelfrey will suddenly become the pitcher everyone expected him to be when he was drafted? Probably not. The departure of these three sluggers makes the National League a safer place in general for the whole of pitchers in the NL, but for Mets pitchers in particular it will have little affect besides making games against the Brewers and Cardinals a little more boring.

'Fielder's gone? I don't need to stop-drop-and-roll anymore!? YES!' (Antonelli/News)

Mets pitchers were middle of the pack last year in HR allowed, walks, and strikeouts; those stats are very indicative of the independent ability of Mets pitchers. In Mike Pelfrey’s case in particular, he’s not a strikeout pitcher but he could lower his 3.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 from 2011. A lot of things have to go right this year for the Mets, and an improved Pelfrey (not to mention a resurgence from Santana) is one of them.

The departures of Gonzalez, Pujols, and Fielder also have implications for Ike Davis as an NL first baseman. That is coming to this blog very soon.

Metsblog.com ran a poll asking its fans if they would boo Jose Reyes when returns to Citi Field with the Marlins. Here are the results:

That's a lot of boos. (Metsblog.com)

Judging by the comments on that post, it seems that some fans are very angry with him for taking the money to go to a division rival. I can’t blame Reyes for doing that, but if that gets some fans peeved then fine. But 33% is a lot of fans on a website as popular as Metsblog. I was genuinely surprised by this.

I mean, the guy isn’t Chipper Jones! He has never ravaged the Mets like Jones has; in fact, he just finished winning this franchise’s first batting title. Why boo someone who was raised in our system and has repeatedly said how much he adores New York and the fans here?

At the Baseball Writers of America New York banquet on Saturday night, Jose Reyes reiterated this. “I know I am not going to be here no more, but I appreciate all the support you gave me all these years,” said Reyes, after receiving the Good Guy Award.

I intend to give applause the first time he comes to bat, to acknowledge the things he has done for this franchise on the field and thank him for an exciting 9 seasons. After that, he’ll be just another star on another rival ball club trying to beat the Mets. I won’t ever boo the guy, because I don’t feel that he deserves it; I do wish him the best of luck in Miami, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be cheering for him.

For the Mets fans who disagree with me: stay classy.

The "ouch" heard 'round Flushing

went on a twitter rant exposing the fact that the boot Ike Davis was wearing restricted circulation to the cartilage and slowed the healing process. Thus, a seemingly simple injury that would have required just a few weeks of rest instead took Davis out for an entire season.

Matthew Callan at Amazin Avenue does a good job of reporting on this topic and why it took so long for this to get out.

So what have we learned from this little debacle that robbed Davis of what was shaping up to be his breakout season?

The Mets are still a joke of an organization. At this point the fans should be numb to it. But the Mets seem to be lacking in the medical department, specifically. Here are another series of tweets from Rubin:

Ike aside, historically most of Mets medical issues involve disregarding medical advice of team doctors and telling players to be tougher.

—
Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) January 18, 2012

Doctors advised J.J. Putz to have bone chips removed from elbow, which would've cost 6 weeks. Mets said shoot him w/ cortisone. He tore UCL.

—
Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) January 18, 2012

Ryan Church says to Brian Schneider, 'Your knee looks swollen. Go see trainer.' Schneider to Church: 'They don't want to hear it.'

—
Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) January 18, 2012

Mets exec calling Billy Wagner a wimp for complaining of elbow discomfort during sim game in Pittsburgh. Wagner needed Tommy John surgery.

—
Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) January 18, 2012

Really, Mets? You’re telling million-dollar investments to “be tougher?” I was happy when this team made the switch to Alderson as GM and Collins as manager. However, the team needs more changes, it seems, to its inner workings, specifically on the baseball side of things. As an organization, the Mets are bad as it is. But it seems like they always find new ways to keep the laugh reel going.

A couple of days ago, David Wright made this comment about the statements Fred Wilpon gave the New Yorker when he said Wright was “not a superstar:”

Do I wish that Fred wouldn’t have said those things? Of course. But I didn’t think it was that big of a deal. …That family has done a tremendous amount — I’m able to do things like this because of that family. … So no matter what has been said, no matter what will be said, I’ll always have a certain love for that family. 

That’s David Wright for ya. Always saying the right things, doing the right things. The direction that the Mets are going in now seems to lead to the eventual mid-season trade of David Wright, especially if he gets hot in the first half. In one way this really excites me because I know that if he can return to his All-Star form, he can bring back some major prospects for the future. Before Citi Field and before the injury this past season, Wright had an OPS of above .900 every year from 2005-2008. Now that Citi Field has been shrunken and Wright is healthy again, we may see a resurgence.

On the other hand, like with Jose Reyes, I have grown accustomed to watching him play in a Mets

Wright will be a dynamic hitter again this season (AP Photo/Ed Betz)

uniform and I’ll be sad the day he’s traded. I still feel like Wright can be an elite hitter and become the “superstar” Wilpon thinks he never was. This guy grew up with this organization and learned a lot of what makes him great with the Mets. Despite not voicing himself in the clubhouse as often as he should, as some would suggest, he was always a stable entity in an otherwise whirlwind setting. Heck, I’ll even miss his cheesy Lincoln ads on SNY.

I think David Wright will remind us of just how great a player he is this year. He will showcase his hitting, wow us with his baseball instincts, and (hopefully) surprise us with better defense. He will return to being the player that he was before 2009. And the day after he is traded, we will all miss him.